Point spread betting, also known as handicap betting, is one of the most popular forms of sports betting. This type of wager involves “handicapping” the perceived difference in strength between two teams by requiring the predicted stronger team to win by more than a specified margin. Understanding how point spreads work is key to betting intelligently on sports. This article will explain the fundamentals of point spread betting and provide tips for utilizing it profitably.
What is a Point Spread?
A point spread represents the estimated margin of victory for a favored team. This projected advantage is set by oddsmakers based on factors like a team’s record, talent level, matchups, and home field. The spread aims to provide relatively even betting on both sides by making the underdog more attractive. For example, if New England is expected to beat Miami by 7 points, the point spread is commonly listed as:
New England -7 Miami +7
This means New England must win by over 7 points to “cover the spread.” Miami can lose by up to 6 points and still cover. Bettors then wager on whether a team will cover the spread, not necessarily win outright.
How Point Spread Betting Works
When you bet on the point spread, your payout does not change based on the actual final score. You are simply betting on the team to cover the handicap. For example:
- New England is favored by 7 points over Miami.
- You bet $110 on New England -7.
- New England wins 27-20.
- New England won by 7, covering the 7-point spread. Your $110 bet wins $100 (standard -110 odds).
The actual final score does not matter, as long as New England wins by over 7. Even if they won 50-10, your payout would be the same.
Conversely, if you bet on Miami +7:
- Miami lost by just 7 points.
- They covered the +7 spread despite losing.
- Your $110 bet on Miami +7 wins $100.
Understanding that your payout is fixed based on the spread, not final score, is vital to point spread betting.
Point Spread Betting Across Different Sports
Point spread betting varies depending on the sport. In the NFL, it’s the most common and popular way to bet. Key numbers in NFL point spreads are 3, 7, and 10, representing a field goal, a touchdown, and a field goal plus a touchdown, respectively.
In the NBA, point spread betting is connected more to possessions. Key numbers to look out for are five and seven, representing two- and three-possession games.
In the NHL and MLB, the spread is referred to as a puckline and runline, respectively. The spread is almost always -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog.
How to Handicap Point Spreads
To successfully bet point spreads, you need to estimate the margin yourself before examining the lines. Factors to consider include:
- Team strengths/weaknesses: Do the offenses or defenses match up favorably? How are special teams?
- Situational spots: Is it a divisional game or rivalry? Is a team coming off a bye?
- Injuries/roster moves: Did a key player get hurt or traded? Has someone returned from injury?
- Trends: How have the teams performed against the spread (ATS) lately? Do they play up or down to competition?
- Advanced stats: What do metrics like yards per play and turnovers show about strengths and weaknesses?
- Matchups: Does a run-heavy offense play a poor rush defense? Can a weak secondary contain an elite receiver?
Once you estimate a margin, compare it to the spread. Betting value arises when you identify discrepancies between your projection and the oddsmakers’ number.
Strategies for Point Spread Betting
Successful point spread betting requires a blend of knowledge, understanding of the sport, and strategic thinking. Here are some strategies that can enhance your betting experience:
- Understand the Teams: Research the teams involved, their past performance, player injuries, and other factors that could influence the game.
- Consider the Venue: Home teams often have an advantage. Consider this factor when placing your bet.
- Look at the Trends: Analyze the betting trends for the teams involved. Some teams perform better against the spread than others.
- Shop for the Best Lines: Different sportsbooks may offer different point spreads. It’s beneficial to shop around for the best line.
In essence, point spread betting is not just about luck; it’s also about strategy. The more informed you are, the better your chances of making a successful bet.
All in all, While point spread betting involves more complexity than picking a straight winner, understanding how handicaps work allows you to bet on every game. The key is estimating margins yourself based on matchups, stats, and trends. Shopping for the best lines, buying points at the right times, and avoiding traps will also boost your bottom line. With the proper skills and discipline, point spread betting provides an excellent chance to win consistently.